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tliet's Avatar Picture tliet – December 17, 2007 03:22AM Reply Quote
Discuss it here

Dr Phred (Moderator) – May 20, 2008 05:26PM Reply Quote
owned by the mothership.
and the tension mounts

rino – May 21, 2008 06:38AM Reply Quote
In America, the only respectable form of socialism is socialism for the rich.
Hope it's not like this until WWDC.

tliet – May 21, 2008 08:55AM Reply Quote

Cloudscout – May 28, 2008 07:20PM Reply Quote
Det finnes ikke dårlig vær, bare dårlige klær!
Ugh. My phone is dying. I don't know if I can go two more weeks before replacing it. What crappy timing.

Cloudscout – May 29, 2008 12:59PM Reply Quote
Det finnes ikke dårlig vær, bare dårlige klær!
I enjoy poking fun at execs who make bold predictions about Apple's potential. The biggest blunders in that regard are Michael Dell's infamous "give the money back to the shareholders" quote 10 years ago and Steve Ballmer's assertion that, "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance." Comparing AAPL to DELL over the last 10 years shows just how wrong Michael Dell was. Steve Ballmer didn't need nearly as much time to look like a fool.

Anecdotal evidence makes it obvious that the iPhone has gained significant market share but exactly how significant? It's hard for a POCWACTSO to do the same kind of analysis that a so-called investment insider might do, but here's what I have found...

I've read a couple of articles that have repeated Microsoft's Windows Mobile licensing numbers. For their 2006-2007 fiscal year, they sold 11 million Windows Mobile licenses. It also says that Microsoft expects to sell 20 million Windows Mobile licenses in the current fiscal year which ends next month. Now, these are OS licenses and Windows Mobile is not limited to phones. I'm sure the majority of those licenses ARE for phones but the number does include PDAs.

If that is the measurement standard then we need to include the iPod touch numbers in our count when we make our comparisons. But Apple doesn't break out those numbers. They're lumped in with the iPod. Fine. We'll just stick with the iPhone numbers for now. In the last 3 quarters, Apple has sold 5,137,000 iPhones. The current quarter (which ends around the same time as Microsoft's fiscal year) is up in the air. By the time the 3G iPhone is released, they will have missed almost a full month of potential sales because of their supply problems. That said, demand is building and the expectation is that Apple will have a LOT of the new phones available for sale on the day they're announced. That will give them 3 weeks of blockbuster sales before the quarter ends.

So let's look at two sets of numbers for comparison.

Rather than trying to estimate how many devices they're going to sell in the current quarter, let's just go with what they sold the last 3 quarters and compare it to what Microsoft says they will have sold in their fiscal year. 5 million to 20 million. In spite of supply constraints, a limited number of countries, carrier exclusivity arrangements and ignoring both iPod touch sales and any iPhone sales for the current quarter, Apple still manages to have a respectable 25% of Microsoft's numbers.

Now let's take some liberties to make some more reasonable estimates.

In 11 days, Apple is expected to release the 3G iPhone... and this time it's going to be a nearly worldwide release. If the rumors are true and Apple is staging these things for immediate availability everywhere, I would expect them to sell at least 3 million of them in those final 3 weeks of June. I'm betting they've sold at least a million of the current generation models during the last two months, too. And since we don't have any actual numbers for the iPod touch, I'm going to pick a relatively small number out of thin air and say that they've sold 1 million of them in total since they were released. That puts Apple's totals a little over 10 million... 50% of Microsoft's numbers.

I'm betting they'll pass Windows Mobile's numbers by June 2009.

Madaracs – May 29, 2008 01:41PM Reply Quote
Ooh! Scary! Scary! Don't we look mean? You can't see me! But I can see you!
That should be a MacEdition article.

rino – May 29, 2008 02:11PM Reply Quote
In America, the only respectable form of socialism is socialism for the rich.
<borat>Very nice!</borat>

Well done.

I frankly could give a damn about 3G since it's not in my area. http://www.wireless.att.com/coverageviewer/

But I do want to buy a second phone. This building of demand is very tricky.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/29/2008 02:12PM by rino.

tomierna (Admin) – May 29, 2008 03:46PM Reply Quote
Hideously Unnatural

Check your e-mail. I've set up a login for you on the MacEdition CMS.

I'm going to be offline for the next few hours, but feel free to make a post of it.

tomierna (Admin) – May 31, 2008 09:52AM Reply Quote
Hideously Unnatural

Were you able to get the login information for the site?


Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/31/2008 09:52AM by tomierna.

Cloudscout – May 31, 2008 03:17PM Reply Quote
Det finnes ikke dårlig vær, bare dårlige klær!
I got it and I'm logged in. Just doing some editing now.

tomierna (Admin) – June 04, 2008 11:57PM Reply Quote
Hideously Unnatural
Yo CS. Time's a running out on the shelf-life of that iPhone article!

Cloudscout – June 05, 2008 12:43AM Reply Quote
Det finnes ikke dårlig vær, bare dårlige klær!
Crap. Girlfriend was whining about something while I was in the middle of posting it and I forgot to go back to it. I'll try to get it tomorrow.

tomierna (Admin) – June 08, 2008 11:20PM Reply Quote
Hideously Unnatural
So, Mr. Scouter of Clouds, if you get this piece posted before Messr. Jobs reaches the stage, we still have the opportunity to say, "I told you so."

Can you get it posted?

(Ribbing you, because I am drunk on wine, and because I think it's a good piece which should be on the site!)

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/08/2008 11:21PM by tomierna.

Cloudscout – June 09, 2008 11:55AM Reply Quote
Det finnes ikke dårlig vær, bare dårlige klær!
It has been posted.

I'm one of three people waiting in front of the Southdale Apple Store right now.

Bruce Robertson – June 09, 2008 12:51PM Reply Quote
Posted where?

Cloudscout – June 09, 2008 03:40PM Reply Quote
Det finnes ikke dårlig vær, bare dårlige klær!

Cloudscout – June 09, 2008 03:46PM Reply Quote
Det finnes ikke dårlig vær, bare dårlige klær!

What we didn't get:

1) A2DP
2) Video Recording
3) MMS
4) Larger Capacity
5) Reasonable Availability

That last point is particularly interesting since Apple's own press release says the new firmware was coming in June.


Apple plans to release the final iPhone 2.0 software, including the iPhone SDK and new enterprise features, as a free software update for all iPhone customers by the end of June.

johnny k – June 09, 2008 03:50PM Reply Quote
It could come out for existing iPhones just before the 3G is available.
Surprisingly little new hardware functionality... really just the faster network and "real" GPS. There's nothing the old iPhones are left out in the dark on. Sounds like a platform-building exercise.
iPod Touch staying the same price for the moment (excess stock?), no increase capacity for iPhone... are memory prices rising?

rino – June 09, 2008 03:52PM Reply Quote
In America, the only respectable form of socialism is socialism for the rich.
I thought about this -- it gives them room to introduce new features, work out the kinks in this new platform, etc...

But not being able to purchase online?? That's so 1997.

johnny k – June 09, 2008 06:26PM Reply Quote

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