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Presidential Politics

tomierna's Avatar Picture tomierna (Admin) – December 08, 2007 02:43AM Reply Quote
Every election is the most important one.

stan adams – January 05, 2008 11:09AM Reply Quote
Robert Novak called the order of the Iowa Dem caucus. He did the same in '04. That is signficant for several reasons:

#1 A tired old hack (who works his circle hard, but it is still a a tired old circle...) had intel that either elluded Hillary or that she too had but STILL was unable to deal with/ out flank -- she seems like toast to me

#2 It puts a new twist into New Hampshire AND the following primaries -- will Barack's momentum grow or ebb, who will tack second? Will the primaries really "lock in" the Dem ticket quickly or have multiple 'frontrunners"?

#3 Why didn't Hillary do more to beat up Edwards? This to me is the biggest question mark. His experience in the Senate is weaker than Barack, and as has been said he did ABSOLUTELY NOTHING for the Kerry ticket, but he is a charmer equal to Bill, maybe even more unctuous -- does Hillary have secret plan to rope him into something?

On the GOP side Novak did NOT correctly predict the finish -- he had Mitt Romney to edge out Mike Huckabee, with Fred Thompson coming in third and John McCain in fourth--though "Ron Paul could make a splash," with a third-place finish "not out of the question." Huck has a LOT of "dirty fighter" in him and his use of Rollins is telling -- This REALLY makes things much easier for McCain as the religous nut jobs are going to flame out instead of uniting behind one guy. This was part of Rudy's strategy all along, His real campaign doesn't even start till Florida.

Lots of fun ahead!

tliet – January 05, 2008 11:54AM Reply Quote
This guy perfectly describes how I felt when I heard Obama came in first for the Dems. And I'm not even black!

Dr Phred (Moderator) – January 05, 2008 01:09PM Reply Quote
owned by the mothership.
I didn't watch his speech live, so I didn't have any fear, but that has crossed my mind. I know he got SS protection early because of "threats" and I'm sure security is big on the campaigns mind. There are a lot of nut jobs out there. some of them in positions of power.

I enjoyed Obama's speech, but I had the same feeling I've got watching other Obama speeches. He has great delivery, but he really doesn't SAY much. Contrast his post Iowa speech with John Edwards's speech. Edwards talked about specifics about what he would do. Less applause lines, but more substance.

But I'd be happy with either of them in the White House.

rino – January 05, 2008 01:25PM Reply Quote
In America, the only respectable form of socialism is socialism for the rich.
Haven't read it, only skimmed. Seems interesting:
On Obama, race and the end of the Southern Strategy

OK enough of my skittering around the internets. Gotta focus on one spot.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/05/2008 01:25PM by rino.

tliet – January 05, 2008 04:03PM Reply Quote

bahamut – January 05, 2008 08:23PM Reply Quote
Why is it that more women voted for Obama than for Hilary? Look, if a country as conservative as Britain could have Thatcher, it's no block. The problem is Hilary. She's always been a problem. My wife met Bill once at a lecture and was amazed at how he made everyone feel like he connected with them. Hilary has none of that. Obama, on the other hand, has a JFK-like flair.

The Elephant's no threat. Huckabee has no legs outside of the evangelicals and the rest of the Republicans hate him. Romney has no legs anywhere except maybe Utah. Thompson is peripheral. Rudy's never going to hold office again anywhere, let alone place in this contest So it's McCain, McCain all the way. And he's the candidate of the status quo AND half-insane. Good luck.

stan adams – January 05, 2008 08:58PM Reply Quote
Wow, I guess I should get ready to see who our idiot govenor will appoint to fill Barack's unexpired term. It ought to be a boring 380 days...

bahamut – January 05, 2008 11:42PM Reply Quote
I'm wondering what will be the consequences of this...

they're desperate for anyone besides the top candidates?

tliet – January 06, 2008 10:38PM Reply Quote
Funny that the more honest speaking candidates are without any chance and thus don't get media attention. (huh?)

morganti – January 08, 2008 04:15PM Reply Quote
Well, Honest speaking on the Repub side basically ammounts to "Iraq was a bad idea."

Ron Paul is still a "Stormfront" candidate (wink wink). Seen any articles about how if Obama "doesnt win" that there are "certain people" that might cause "social unrest" in certain parts of the country (wink wink).

If anything will actually get a right-wing nutjob to admit that Fox News is biased, its this. Seriously, there is NO reason to not put him in the debate. He's fundraising as good as any guy in the race. He's got eyeballs on the internet, why NOT have him on? Duh... Fox News doesn't want him on.

I'll say it right now. It's down to Romney and McCain. The GOP insiders are saying and doing everything in their power to get Huckabee out. It seems some of the evangelicals have figured out that the last 30 years have been a whole lot of talkin' and very little walkin'. The GOP whistles its "marriage protectin'" and its "ten commandments in schools"... but they can't deliver. Mostly because the country as a whole doesn't agree with them, but also because the Republicans are about Big Bidness and Big Donors. The Southern Strategy folks, and the Christians can just go to the back of the bus and ride along. "Yes you're needed" {pat on the head} "now be quiet and get out the vote...". What are they going to do vote DEMOCRAT for gods sakes? Maybe go independent... How well did that work for ya in 1992?

Morg "This is a change elections... Repubs are goin down..." anti

stan adams – January 08, 2008 05:00PM Reply Quote
Folks, there is NO "candidate for change" on either side's primaries. Believe me the only 'change' Obama would bring to the White House is cosmetic -- as he & Durbin are ostensibly MY senators I can say emphatically that we have ONE senator that votes twice. No big deal, California, Hawaii, Massachusetts and a bunch of other states are in the same sorry shape.

Hell, McCain is more an "outsider" than most of the others -- remember all the dirty tricks thrown his way by the Bush camp in elections past? You know his "with party percentage is a weak compared to Obama. In fact he one of only two Senators to have graduated from a Service Academy, and the other is hardly remarkable.


While do agree that Obama is going to build HUGE momentum coming out of NH and into "SUPER super Tuesday" there are other candidates and scenarios that will have to be played out before this thing is over.

Who knows what may come out of yesterday's gathering in Norman OK -- http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/us/politics/08bloomberg.html?_r=1&ref=us&oref=slogin

Or what happens when "change" wanters ask for results: http://www.lohud.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080108/NEWS05/801080360/1021

Steve Cordova – January 08, 2008 09:21PM Reply Quote
History passes the first time as tragedy, the second time as farts. - Roy Edroso
You missed the senator who graduated from a Service Academy/.

currently, 19:17 MST (21:17 EST) MSNBC has it Clinton 39% Obama 36%. Not what I was hoping for, but I can live with it.

rino – January 08, 2008 11:13PM Reply Quote
In America, the only respectable form of socialism is socialism for the rich.
There isn't a real challenge to the oligopoly -- big surprise there.

Interesting New Yorker Comment piece on Bloomberg.... http://downloads.newyorker.com/mp3/comment/080114_comment_bloomberg.mp3

and oh, tonight's Fresh Air was:
James Hansen and Mark Bowen on Censored Science

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 01/08/2008 11:17PM by rino.

Mokers (Moderator) – January 08, 2008 11:30PM Reply Quote
Formerly Remy Martin
My money is still on Hillary. She has weathered the biggest political storm of her career when Obama won Iowa. She eked out a victory in NH, but with the way Obama was polling in the days following Iowa, it was huge. Apparently everybody likes an underdog, unless your name is Edwards, who needs to win South Carolina or just hang it up.

I obviously didn't have enough faith in McCain. Huckabee clearly blew his campaign wad way too early. Romney has money, but also has cash to spend. For the love of God, if Huckabee is placed on the ticket, I will volunteer for the Democrats.

El Jeffe – January 09, 2008 07:59AM Reply Quote
What a journey.
Huckabee will not be the Republican candidate for President.

What a journey.

ghidorah – January 09, 2008 10:23AM Reply Quote
Raise taxes on cavemen. --jw
Because the Republican machine knows Huckabee vs Anybody = Democratic win. In the same way that the Democrats should figure out that Hillary vs Anybody = Republican win.

morganti – January 09, 2008 10:30AM Reply Quote
Agreed, too many establishment interests arrayed against him. And despite the fact that the "evangelicals" have flocked to him for a reason (basically he's one of them, and the others are pretty much NOT), they've done the calculus before, and will probably rally around the R. Candidate, whoever he may be.

I still have no fear of any of the R candidates right now. As for McCain being a "change" candidate...

*gets up off the floor*

riiiight... He's the MOST establishment candidate IN the frikkin race. House in 1982, Senate in 86? That's as establishment as it gets.

Oh, and he's a "little bit" pro Bush. That's gonna help him in the general.

Morg "Except for the 'wackjobs' Edwards is probably the only non-centrist candidate in the whole race" anti

Mokers (Moderator) – January 09, 2008 12:18PM Reply Quote
Formerly Remy Martin
This thing about the Republican establishment going all out against Huckabee is a little bit of a joke, and depends on the idea that Mike had some Huck-mentum coming out of Iowa. I think the simpler fact is Iowa is often a little wonky. In 1988, Bush and Dukakis finished 3rd. And New Hampshire? The state where Pat Buchanan can claim victory?

I also think polling methods are hopelessly out of date. All of the "Huckabee loses against anybody" and "Hillary loses against anybody" is all well and good, but candidates don't race against "anybody" and until candidates are named, it is anybody's race. If there is anything the Republican establishment hates about Huckabee is that they are going to have a hard time electing a Governor who raised taxes and budget spending at a faster rate than the feds. The Huckabee campaign might represent some good things, but Huckabee the candidate does not have that much substance.

I know a lot of dems don't like Hillary, but Jesus it's odd to hear myself defending her. I might even vote for her, if only because we'll get to see if Republicans also suffer from the POTUS malaise, in which their candidate loses the election to the most hated figure they can think of, and they go into a depression.

El Jeffe – January 09, 2008 12:29PM Reply Quote
What a journey.
You're probably right. A dem would bring on a depression, jump right over a recession. :)

What a journey.

ddt – January 09, 2008 12:39PM Reply Quote
yeah. i remember the soup lines, the deficit, the foreclosures of the clinton years.


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