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tomierna's Avatar Picture tomierna (Admin) – December 08, 2007 02:37AM Reply Quote
Talk about industry stock market mumbo-jumbo here.

johnny k – April 18, 2016 03:03PM Reply Quote
Intuit is the reason I always voted against his Apple board nomination.

John Willoughby – April 18, 2016 06:47PM Reply Quote
Cyberdyne Systems Customer Support
Me, too. Quicken for Mac, more specifically.

bahamut – April 18, 2016 09:47PM Reply Quote
God I am still scarred by that, the damn thing couldn't add!!!!

Roger – April 26, 2016 03:52PM Reply Quote
AAPL is getting killed in after-hours trading on the new earnings report.

bahamut – April 26, 2016 03:54PM Reply Quote
I should have sold my stock. I think this is it. They are in a death spin again. Time spent on the new HQ rather than on product. How lazy can these guys be?

Roger – April 26, 2016 04:03PM Reply Quote
I'm surprised by the big dip the stock is taking considering the earnings drop is just in line with forecasts, not worse. Wall Street is weird.

It does seem like upping buybacks is a pretty weak response but whatever, it's their way of saying they think they're undervalued and I kind of agree at this point. Single-digit P/E isn't how you spell "death spin" in my language. I do agree that they shouldn't just be embracing and continuing this dumb seasonal pattern where they never have any new products to point to in the winter/spring.

bahamut – April 26, 2016 04:05PM Reply Quote
They dont have any new products ever, period. The entire range of products is now stalled and the beast has lost its way. Tim has no idea what to do. Maybe make a TV, ok not really, it's just a hobby, maybe make a watch, but it's just a hobby, maybe make a car?

Our customers are incredibly loyal. Good luck dude.

porruka (Admin) – April 26, 2016 04:06PM Reply Quote
The cat has your pipe.
Well, they're upping the share buyback and dividends (including the continued use of debt to do so rather than actual cash). Either they're incompetent, they're blindered, or they know things we don't.

Even as a non-stockholder, am I satisfied with what's come out of the mothership in the last few years? Not really. I still suspect there are great things that are just behind schedule though (he says, invoking the possibility that he is either incompetent or blindered).

We all knew that iPhone sales (and handheld device sales in general) would reach a balance; there are only so many people who will adopt the device immediately. Once you have to rely on switchers and the downmarket, it's slower growth.

Services will be played up this time (like they were last time -- foreshadowing? I imagine so) and the article about DuPont is an interesting view of the coming challenges.

bahamut – April 26, 2016 04:17PM Reply Quote
lots of analysts suggest the stock buyback is a scam to improve earnings per share.

johnny k – April 26, 2016 04:26PM Reply Quote
Scam? That's historically why companies do buybacks.

It does seem like upping buybacks is a pretty weak response but whatever, it's their way of saying they think they're undervalued and I kind of agree at this point. Single-digit P/E isn't how you spell "death spin" in my language.

I agree too, but hasn't Wall Street decided long ago that the narrative is that Apple is always on the verge of a huge flop, and the looking forward rather than the steady growth to profit domination is what's depressing the P/E? This probably becomes more true as we move from Jobs' hype-raising to Cook's operational relentlessness... we might get several huge businesses eventually, but Apple stock moves on surprises.

I think in the short term, Apple will leverage their huge loyal installed base and focus on getting more recurring revenue (phone leases, services...original content?), while developing new market categories for the long term. And they're always one new killer feature away from getting a large chunk of the 1 billion current iPhone users to upgrade.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/26/2016 04:29PM by johnny k.

porruka (Admin) – April 26, 2016 04:27PM Reply Quote
The cat has your pipe.
lots of analysts suggest the stock buyback is a scam to improve earnings per share.

Analysts are notoriously wrong about many companies, including Apple, but it's true, buybacks literally improve EPS. It's also a sop to activist investors.

Neither of those things are abnormal for US publicly traded companies.

My ultimate point is that if they must believe that more growth is coming (the "they know something we don't"). If the alternatives are true, then all bets are off.

RE: THE CALL -- Wow, something we haven't heard in a LONG time - channel inventory adjustments.

porruka (Admin) – April 26, 2016 04:34PM Reply Quote
The cat has your pipe.
"Supply constrained" on the SE. Interesting, as it's not just from entry-level demand.

El Jeffe – April 26, 2016 04:38PM Reply Quote
What a journey.
there are a LOT of companies that would love to have Apple's "Stagnant" growth product line. ;)

porruka (Admin) – April 26, 2016 05:07PM Reply Quote
The cat has your pipe.
I didn't get to catch the opening of the call, but the part I listened to seemed fairly somber. I thought the comments on iPad were interesting (the problem isn't the platform, it's the upgrade cycle - which could either be wishful thinking or that the tablet/post-PC market positioning is still premature). Services is good, as a way of pulling more money out of the installed base. Curious was one of the almost throwaway comments about music that now that there are both subscription and download options, stabilization is being seen with the expectation of uptick "eventually".

ARL (Moderator) – April 26, 2016 06:10PM Reply Quote
I'm wondering how much of the last 5 or so years was flow on from Steve's ideas (either directly or however he encouraged other people's) and whether this recent decline is Tim Cook's more um, technocratic managerial approach.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/26/2016 06:11PM by ARL.

John Willoughby – April 26, 2016 06:27PM Reply Quote
Cyberdyne Systems Customer Support
Again, what new markets are there for Apple to enter? Especially since Apple's history with services isn't good. The low hanging fruit is gone.

porruka (Admin) – April 26, 2016 10:05PM Reply Quote
The cat has your pipe.
John Willoughby
Again, what new markets are there for Apple to enter? Especially since Apple's history with services isn't good. The low hanging fruit is gone.

It could be argued that the iPhone wasn't low-hanging fruit when it was done, so hard things are not impossible or even improbable.

There was the comment about "services being in support of the ecosystem" which makes me think Apple could, if it chose, take on YouTube and SoundCloud immediately by adding some form of monetization (ala App Store) for media other than books (via iMovie++ and GarageBand++). Would they do it well? Not sure, but the App Store model is a little less heinous than the iCloud model.

There's perpetually (though more vehement again recently) the "Apple in the direct content creation game" (ala Amazon).

There's Apple as a video entertainment aggregator/provider. Exciting? No. Profitable? Likely, if it happens at all.

The car, should it actually happen soon enough, I think has the potential to be awesome, once people get their brains around it. I suspect it won't actually show up until there's substantial progress in self-driving tech and accompanying laws. It would be like Apple to 3.5"-floppy manual driving.

Connected home? Maybe. That same Dupont article talked about the iHome platform being left for 3rd parties to fill in. That seems analogous to ROKR. I wouldn't put it past Apple to get impatient for that and start incorporating bits into AirPort Expresses. (Or just wishful thinking, maybe.)

VR? There are LOTS of people who think that's the future. There have been rumors of Apple dabbling in the space. I don't know yet what to think about it, personally, though I can see it _perhaps_ connecting to the video/audio content _particularly_ with Apple's at-the-OS level support for content reproduction technology (ColorSync, etc).

Personal identity verification will be a big deal going forward. Whether that's a leap in the iPhone or something else, reliable identification could form the nucleus of any number of initiatives.

Broadband infrastructure and distributed services? Apple seems content to let Google and the telcos fight it out for now but I could imagine a time when the "Apple becomes a carrier" meme returns (though probably not in the current form of overlay or even native carriers).

Commercial/enterprise applications and hardware: I only caught a sentence or two about that on the call and haven't been able to get back to it yet. I could see Apple taking advantage of IBM there and taking a cut of any number of services, adding to high-margin revenue streams.

There's a world of possibility in Small Business, though most of that probably centers around iPad, iPhone, and the Mac, leaving the low-hanging fruit there to 3rd parties.

Apple is getting really good at making all the stuff that makes the devices. I'm not talking about manufacturing (though that is certainly true too), I'm talking about design and innovation in the hardware itself. It's not been mere foundry process improvements; everything from display controllers to battery tech -- though mostly in service of design elements. I think these things will go to new input peripherals and ultimately, devices that are indistinguishable from what we today call input peripherals.

The next standalone communication form factor: I think Apple is prepping the Watch to be that; everything we see now is candy. Apple, as well as anyone, knows the iPhone is toast in the medium term (and no, I'm not referring to "only" selling 51MM of them this quarter). Some other device _will_ supplant the smartphone (as we know it) just as the iPhone did. I'm certain that Apple is working on just such a device; probably multiple form factors of which the Watch is only one.

The next standalone content creation form factor: this, I think, is iPad Pro, but I think it's premature for the market for that usage. It's another "let it get settled in first" sort of process where there will either be Eureka! or the addition of a particular bit of usefulness that will tip it over the edge.

Will Apple continue to print money? Yes, I think they will, even if the press slows a bit awaiting the leap from "iPhone as Treo" to Communicator.

The one thing that I did hear in the conf call that did actually disturb me is Tim's response to the use of the cash horde for M&A, "... for the right technology and people" (paraphrased). It definitely had a sense of finality regarding the unspoken idea of buying additive _products_. This isn't really all that surprising given Apple's penchant to build whatever itself to its own (sometimes lax) standards and there are very few non-Apple companies that do that as well as Apple, but I thought I caught more stubbornness in the inflection than pride. NIH in a bad way, such that if Apple does decide to tackle an existing market, it's automatically assuming it can do whatever it is better than whoever leads it. I'm probably reading too much into what is SOP for Apple, but still...

bahamut – April 26, 2016 10:54PM Reply Quote
Agreed about a lot there. Sadly the iPad Pro is half a misfire. There is no workable keyboard for it. The two current options are like boxes ofmlicroicemfed to bears. Apples touchid could be huge, but it's not, Apple could totally figure out the cloud, but they won't. Oh well. Another day, more muddle. The stock will bounce back eventual;y...

El Jeffe – April 27, 2016 04:05AM Reply Quote
What a journey.
John Willoughby
Again, what new markets are there for Apple to enter? Especially since Apple's history with services isn't good. The low hanging fruit is gone.

Dive into 'health' and medical more and in more varied ways
kick start their home automation efforts in more and varied ways
personal SECURITY.
Legal. yeah LEGAL. figure out basic LEGAL needs, rights, and ways technology can help. God knows that Tim Cook should be VERY INTERESTED IN USofA Legal things now.
and to appease the GUBMINT... figure out how to make VOTING and REPRESENTATION better with technology. Again, Cook should be VERY INTERESTED in fair representation and socially active political things.
Apple Pay --> Apple logistics, ordering, fulfillment. Embed things deeper into vertical markets of this.

and last but least, SPORTS.... so many people surround their life with sports. Not healthy, fitness, but WATCHING SPORTS!

porruka (Admin) – April 27, 2016 09:48AM Reply Quote
The cat has your pipe.
BI has a different take on the fragment I heard concerning Apple and M&A:


Other thoughts?

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