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Tony Leggett
All good points - but for me it's not so much whether Apple moves to a better architecture but that Apple is moving to a different, non-standard architecture for computers again.
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Unless ARM-powered tablets are going to end up more overpowered than desktop machines I don't see the need for the move - especially if none of Apple's competitors are going to do so.
At this point for Apple, the ARM machines (iPad/Phone) are the mainstream, while the Mac (or even the PC) is the "different, non-standard" (and significantly more expensive) architecture for computers.
The question is not whether the Mac will stay on Intel so much as whether Apple will bother with such a (comparatively) low volume / profit business if the architecture is too significantly different from Apple's bread and butter. Especially if the material components (like Intel CPUs) are significantly more expensive than the alternative. We've already seen what Apple does to low volume, tangental products like XServe. As ArsTechnica said in
All this has happened before:
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It seems probable that NVIDIA, and the rest of the ARM chipmakers, are simply sitting on a much larger market opportunity than Intel, especially if Intel can't match the Cortex A8 in power draw and cost. And even if it can, there are a host of reasons for mobile and consumer electronics vendors to pick ARM over x86, not the least of which is the fact that nobody wants to be wedded to a single CPU supplier.
If it turns out that the ARM ecosystem can get within a factor of two of x86 in terms of performance and performance per watt as ARM chips move to higher levels of size and complexity, and if that ecosystem can simultaneously keep the cost of ARM chips much lower than that of x86 chips, then ARM could do to x86 what x86 did to Alpha, MIPS, SPARC, PowerPC, and the other RISC workstation architectures. Intel used its process strength to get close enough to RISC workstation and server performance that the PC's status as a low-cost commodity machine gave the PC an edge. We all know how the story played out: the high-end RISC vendors were marginalized, as the lower volumes on their now-boutique chips kept their prices up; meanwhile, Intel relentlessly narrowed the performance gap and moved the PC into new markets because it was dramatically cheaper and almost as good.
Given that there is no x86-only equivalent of Windows in the mobile space to give Intel the monopoly that it enjoyed in the PC market, it's possible that competition in the ARM ecosystem could get performance up into Intel's territory (without ever beating it) while being much cheaper due to massively higher product volumes. In that scenario, the x86 PC becomes a boutique, high-performance, niche machine, like the classic RISC workstations of yore. If x86 winds up in the same high-performance, high-cost ghetto as, say, Alpha, then it's curtains for Intel... unless, of course, the chipmaker jumps back on the ARM bandwagon.
There's a reason why Microsoft is making sure Windows 8 runs native on ARM.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/23/2011 11:12PM by James DeBenedetti.