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Granberry's Parlor

tomierna's Avatar Picture tomierna (Admin) – December 07, 2007 09:46PM Reply Quote
Politics. Don Granberry on the old Spork Boards was quite fond of talking about them, and here we continue on in that fine tradition.

stan adams – March 20, 2008 12:26PM Reply Quote
The US has many banks on many different "tiers" -- if you consider a smaller community oriented bank its customers are most likely individuals that might have savings accounts, checking accounts, an old fashioned 30 YR fixed rate mortgage, and maybe CDs to get a little higher rate on money they won't need day-to-day. If you are a small business you might have some accounts there too, to write checks on and maybe even have a small loan. Simple stuff. The US also have a lot of large "money center" banks that are happy to do those sort of retail transactions, but they also have large investment banking/trading operations. There used to be laws against US banks having those operations as well as retail brokerage, but they complained to the regulators that the European and Asian banks had such combined operations and they got their wish. Doesn't really seem that made much difference...

The Dutch banks like ABN AMRO have tried to compete on both fronts in the US without much success -- Bank of America has purchased ABN's LaSalle Bank for their retail, mid-sized business banking, and "high net worth" clients that they've built from their Chicago base. ABN has been successful in doing the kind of global deal making that seem to need to go head to head with other large US or foreign based banks like RBS, that is why it cut sliced up between them and Fortis & Santander. It makes me feel a little bad, as LaSalle was a bank with a great heritage in Chicago and I have relatives that work there. I think that BofA probably overpaid, but their bid was based largely on the "pre-mortgage-securities-liquidity-crisis" and LaSalle actually had/has a fairly high quality portfolio of standard loans. BofA is probably better off with those loans, especially as BofA itself has LOTS of crappy overpriced California, Nevada and Florida homes on its books...

I disagree that the banks are/were "inventing profits". They are ALWAYS creating products that have the potential to be profitable, but they still had to find people with CASH that wanted better returns with what they assumed (were somewhat deluded into thinking...) had low-ish risk. The delusion was helped along by the firms that provided opinions/guarantees that these new-fangled instruments were kinda sorta like other plain old mortgage backed securities. Also those firm include the standard warnings like "past performance is not a guarantee of future returns/all opinions contained here-in are based on assumptions of conditions that we have knowledge of, we cannot attest to the truthfulness of those for whom we relied to provide data/all investing involves risk of loss of principal/ yadda yadda yadda ya...

If/when regulators from the various European governments intervene to prevent a bank take-over they are going to in effect relegate that bank to a lower tier -- in some cases this is a good thing. Right now if you look at a huge bank like Citigroup it is worth far more than a midsized bank like MB Financial -- market capitalization is order of magnitude larger, the Price/Earnings ratio is far greater, and yield are also higher. But the VOLATILITY of Citi (as expressed as "beta") is also far worse and the Earning Per Share are not as good. SO -- if you were to look at longer horizon you would expect to Citi to not perform as well as MB... (or maybe once Citi gets healthy it'll buy up MBFI and pay a premium -- I find it too easy for ME to create stories with happy endings for any 'investment' and tend, therefore to invest in only broad classes of financial assets...)
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AC
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:MBFI

It is also interesting to consider that since there are so many more shares of C you'd have to spend a lot more money to have as much "voice" in proxy matters as you would at MBFI even though the C shares are, on pure dollar basis, cheaper.

I suspect the same things are true of the Dutch banks -- they are a different animal than the high flying banks.

BTW I do not think that SocGen lost $7B because of Jerome Kerviel -- he was simply the person that exposed how lax their internal controls were. Similarly BSC dropped in value by Billions because the entire market came to sense that the organization had based too much of its business on things that were merely a house of cards. Mr. Kerviel should have had more supervision. The overall market was on the verge of "supervising" BSC out of existence -- the Fed crafted a deal that prevented such a harsh fate from happening and possibly/probably sucking the entire economy into a very dark hole. Ideally rationality would have come earlier to "the Market" and to Mr. Kerviel's superiors but sometimes some good comes of these "cataclysmic events". Like a meteor blotting out the Sun and adding a whole lot of pressure to Darwinian succession, hopefully the people at SocGen will quickly evolve the controls needed to keep the French banking system in the game and those gullible investors that were wiped out by BSC's collapse will learn that extraordinary profits come with commensurate risks.

Mokers (Moderator) – March 20, 2008 01:20PM Reply Quote
Formerly Remy Martin

ddt – March 20, 2008 02:02PM Reply Quote
interesting, stan. not sure i'll internalize all that knowledge but i don't doubt it.

but still, it all seems to boil down to the "greater fool" theory, doesn't it?

ddt

tliet – March 21, 2008 12:25AM Reply Quote
I agree there's a distinct difference in how conservative Germanic European banks and the Anglo Saxon banks do business. One could argue that the US banks are more successful in deal making, but how come that Citigroup is being bailed out by the Saudis and Chinese banks in January on what are basically mafia terms, 11% return regardless of results and this week again on unknown terms?

Maybe it's time to return to times where operating profit is the major market force, instead of the focus on an ever increasing stockprice. For now these policies have made the Saudis more than a supplier of the main economic drug of the US, they also have a hand in the cash register. For a country exporting most of the Islamic extremism, I don't think that's a good thing for the west.

El Jeffe – March 21, 2008 01:47AM Reply Quote
What a journey.
okay, here is one example of stuff going around.....

only go here if you want the worst case scenario (short of alien attacks)

Video at bottom

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=46d_1205873088&c=1

What a journey.

stan adams – March 21, 2008 05:32AM Reply Quote

You have to love the first comment: "the pantyless snatchshots will be hanging over the fireplace next to the wedding pictures..."

Don't ya wanna look at that Bridal Album? I'd have no problem ponying for the "deluxe heirloom package"...

El Jeffe – March 21, 2008 06:02AM Reply Quote
What a journey.
i'd hope the photo would be a heir-less one. :)

What a journey.

YDD – March 21, 2008 10:06AM Reply Quote
Quote

The overall market was on the verge of "supervising" BSC out of existence -- the Fed crafted a deal that prevented such a harsh fate from happening and possibly/probably sucking the entire economy into a very dark hole
Why would the entire economy have been sucked into a very dark hole?

El Jeffe – March 21, 2008 10:20AM Reply Quote
What a journey.
maybe the have the Ark of the Covenant as collateral in their basement?

What a journey.

stan adams – March 21, 2008 11:08AM Reply Quote
Dammit Bill, the Trilateral Commission is going to come down hard on you for spilling the beans... -- http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/NWO/nwotoc.html

But seriously, I think that there is a lot to support the idea that had BSC limped along for another couple of days/weeks while markets continued to go against it that would have resulted in more and more money heading into gold and other over inflated 'safe havens of the mad' and less and less liquidity for BSC to find. That kind of flight can (and has) led to hyper-inflation in individual countries in the past. If the global economy ever went into that kind of full panic mode there would be a helluva lot of disruption.

There is/was a concerted effort on the part of the Fed to get put on tourniquet around the bleeding stump of mortgage backed securities and their cheif promoter, BSC - they were STILL trying to "trade their way" to liquidity and losing. The whole administration has made some changes to help take the sting out of mortgage induced craziness. Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac have been allowed to reduce their cash reserves from 30 to 20&, the jumbo cap has beeen raised n the most effected (inflated...) states and the FHA limits have been boosted too. Things are functioning better, but there are still a lot of rough patches ahead. People are going to start crying about shitty returns on all asset classes, but the theory is that as long as things don't JUMP or DIVE (mortagage rates and 401k) with too much force people will be accepting of it -- the trick is to boil the frog slowly so they stay in the kettle...

YDD – March 22, 2008 01:51PM Reply Quote
Why is it 'good' to raise the jumbo cap in the 'most inflated' states? Why not just let the prices come down? What's so wrong with letting the market do what it wants?

tliet – March 22, 2008 10:24PM Reply Quote
Some analysis and primarily conclusions...

The expectation that with the latest rate cuts by the Fed and the saviour of Bear Stearns the worst is over is probably premature.

The bonus/malus structure in the financial sector, the way they are set up, a bonus in the form of extra income in good times, but the only malus in bad years is no extra income. It is safe to assume that this system leads to taking risks that are too high. Suggestions are for example to give bankers and fund managers shares in their own institution with a hold time of about 7 years, thus including the full credit cyclus.

See for more details the link via Google Translate.

rino – March 23, 2008 12:28PM Reply Quote
In America, the only respectable form of socialism is socialism for the rich.
Quote

How can one feel sorry for James Cayne? The potential losses of the chairman and former chief executive of Bear Stearns must rank up there with the biggest in modern history. The value of his stake in Bear Stearns collapsed from about $1 billion a year ago to as little as $14 million at the price JPMorgan Chase offered for the teetering bank on Sunday.

Still, Mr. Cayne was paid some $40 million in cash between 2004 and 2006, the last year on record, as well as stocks and options. In the past few years, he has sold shares worth millions more. There should be financial accountability for the man who led Bear Stearns as it gorged on dubious subprime securities to boost its profits and share price, helping to set up one of the biggest financial collapses since the savings-and-loan crisis in the 1980s. Some might argue that he should have lost it all.

But that’s not how it works. The ongoing bailout of the financial system by the Federal Reserve underscores the extent to which financial barons socialize the costs of private bets gone bad. Not a week goes by that the Fed doesn’t inaugurate a new way to provide liquidity — meaning money — to the financial system. Bear Stearns isn’t enormous. It doesn’t take deposits from the public. Yet the Fed believed that letting it implode could unleash a domino effect among other banks, and the Fed provided a $30 billion guarantee for JPMorgan to snap it up.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/21/opinion/21fri1.html

rino – March 23, 2008 12:44PM Reply Quote
In America, the only respectable form of socialism is socialism for the rich.
DPBD:

So back to my socialist dream land.
The deal with GM and Lutz and all other big execs.

During 2007 GM generated an operating loss of $4.4 billion and a net loss of $38.7 billion. Since 2005, the company has cut 69,000 employees, more than 20% of the work force, and GM’s market share has declined 2.4%. Yet Bob Lutz just received a 18% raise to "restore" his compensation for 2008 to somewhere around 1.5 million dollars.

Does this guy shit gold bricks or magical batteries that'll rescue GM's future with extremely efficient automobiles?

This is a huge problem across industries and in our world. There's no reason.

stan adams – March 23, 2008 04:29PM Reply Quote
first things - Rick Wagoner is GM's Chairman. His salary is about $2.2M, probably too high, but realistically GM is a hellaciously complicated company with some truly bizarre financial issues beyond the potpourri of labor issues, global trade issues, finding consumers to buy its products, yadda yadda, yadda ... Realistically there are NOT a lot of people that could do his job. Lutz has a title of "vice chairman" -- he is the "real deal" of romping stomping car loving dudes with classics including Ferraris in his personal garage. Sometimes even I feel sorry for the guy, as his 72 year old self still desperately WANTS the US Auto Industry to not just "survive" but to thrive. He balances the needs of the company to make sexy desirable cars with the global desire to have more efficient vehicles. He has to pump tons of money into medium/short term research and lots of dead-end product development while instilling confidence in investors that GM is at least no worse than its competitors. Really hard to do...


The buzz about "mortgage liquidity crisis" is not dead. There a lot of people that feel VERY screwed by the BSC "deal" but beyond that there are serious concerns that despite all the attempts at "temporarily" allowing BSC to take a breather from its crushing mortgage debt the overall market still is spooked by the potential for widespread mortgage defaults. Personally I am not betting that the Fed will go along with any plan that makes it the "backstop" for any more mortgage debt, but when you look at the kind of numbers that are being talked about there is no question that this will not "fix itself". http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ad0zneiPUVjA&refer=home Even a fraction of $6 TRILLION is too big a number to fathom -- all those "fixed income funds" are not equal, with many in the "high yield junk" arena, but a sizable percentage of them are supposed to be the boring old low-mid yield stuff. Here is an example http://www.tcw.com/cmRoot/docs/cm/TSI_Annual_Report.20080226141232307.pdf

tliet – March 23, 2008 09:53PM Reply Quote
Interesting presentations from 2006 about the peak in production of oil and the economic impact that it will have.


YDD – March 24, 2008 11:15AM Reply Quote
Quote

Personally I am not betting that the Fed will go along with any plan that makes it the "backstop" for any more mortgage debt, but when you look at the kind of numbers that are being talked about there is no question that this will not "fix itself".
Why not? The banks got themselves into this trouble. Let them get themselves out of it. Along the way, we might find out that a sizeable fraction of them were manufacturing fake profits. I don't see how discovering that would be a bad thing.

stan adams – March 24, 2008 12:47PM Reply Quote
The are no "fake profits" , either there is money in excess of costs or not, and a whole bunch of big bosses have been dethroned in recent months because their firms had very large costs and NO profits.
They were/are, however, a whole lot of people who wanted to believe that they were getting much better than average returns with lower than average risks. One of the most popular instruments they used to help delude themselves are/were Credit Default Swaps. Like other financial derivatives, C.D.S.s are based on a "real world" model, in this case "insurance", where riskier things (a teenager with a Porsche Turbo) have a higher premium than less risky things (a grandmother with a Grand Marquis). The firms that created these beasts found all sorts of things to "link" them to -- from crazy "Lloyds of London" risks to "simple" bonds to the grand daddy of liquidity -- mortgages. Once other firms were willing to accept them as "linked to mortgages" the sky was the limit. Mortgages used to be the Grand Marquis of financial instruments - most were fixed rate, written for far less than 80% of a properties value and routine in the extreme. As various mortgage servicers realized they could use IT to streamline the origination and collection of mortgages they wanted to increase their volumes to afford hi volume IT infrastructure and minimize their cost per transaction. The nature of loans shifted. They were becoming riskier. The odds of default was increasing dramatically. Yet these C.D.S. linked to mortgages seemed a lot more understandable than the odds of a freighter going down with a load of BMWs or some over leveraged Swedish Bus company defaulting on its bonds http://www.cfonet.com/article.cfm/5514478?f=search

A fair number of people understood that mortgages were morphing from Grand Marquis into Porsche Turbos -- the dangerous mix of adjustable rates, greater than 100% financing, inflated valuations, flippers, over building and even rising property taxes were all signs that these things were unsustainable. But there is no "open outcry market" for C.D.S.s it is largely the "Lloyds Syndicate" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyds_of_London#.27Recruit_to_dilute.27 model -- you get very rich individuals to toss you their money on a hand shake and reams of legalese. But in the new world it wouldn't do to have moneyed folks hitting up one another between chukkers at the polo match or back in the yacht club after a regatta -- no sir reee, now a days all the SERIOUS money floats around in hedge funds -- no nosy reg-u-lators requiring folks to file forms and such. Nope. That is for the wimpy little fraidy cats that put their money in plebian mutual funds and run of the mill commercial banks. The hedge funds are for Masters of Universe types. So while they were busy playing bridge in Davos http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Davos or skiing in Gstaad http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gstaad or just hanging with the Grimalidi kids http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_II,_Prince_of_Monaco, some bad news hit -- Chrisy Carpenter done sold her last "to die for" two bedroom one bath Palo Alto flip for a million bucks -- ain't no suckers left. So the rich dudes get all pissed and yell at their "financial advisors" about how they NEED a little more "current income" and WHAM, ain't nobody who feels like these hedge funds are doing much other than sawing through a whole mountain of cash mighty fast... That is a "crisis in confidence". People want "out" and they want it NOW. Except that the Bear Streans can't liquidate its positions and mail back checks, because NOBODY is dumb enough to think that things will "turn around" in any sort of reasonable (like faster than Japan's 10 year down/flat market).

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/23/business/23how.html?ei=5087&em=&en=545585f39cd180f0&ex=1206504000&pagewanted=all

Reality is that housing sales WILL pick up, the market WILL absorb inventory, and MOST mortgages are still pretty safe bets. Once level headed adults are the NORM and not the exception there might even be some money made with the derivatives. Overall, it is probably a ACCEPTABLE SITUATION that some areas are left unregulated, but those folks that want the extraordinary returns have to be prepared for the "life without a safety net" that the lack of regs comes with.

For all the rest of us, some degree of regulation is a GOOD THING, that overall makes for more returns for more people.

El Jeffe – March 24, 2008 02:10PM Reply Quote
What a journey.
There is a lot wrong with getting people's hopes up. Amish don't do that.

What a journey.

ddt – March 25, 2008 09:43AM Reply Quote
waiting for all the moderate christians to disavow people like this. after all, destroying science is a great threat to western civilization, innit?

ddt

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