Granberry's Parlor

DPBD!

Very subtle guys...

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The Heartland Institute disputes global warming, but that didn't stop the conservative social-issues group from turning up the heat with a suburban Chicago billboard showing a typically crazy-faced portrait of Unabomber Ted Kaczynski and the headline, "I still believe in global warming. Do you?" After predictably pissing off just about everyone generating lots of free publicity, Heartland removed the incendiary sign.

Tony, you haven't stumbled upon whitewhine.com yet, I'm guessing... .

ddt

Oh I have - I should send on the link...

I think Facebook stock is going to have a hard time ahead of it. I don't understand the initial valuation. Ubiquitous doesn't always imply profitable.

[EDIT]
My old-school-finance-guy father agrees with me. My new-school-finance-girl sister-in-law does not. My new-school-finance-guy brother has not weighed in.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/18/2012 11:14AM by John Willoughby.

I had no idea how far the fix was in -- underwriters are obliged to buy shares to make it impossible for the stock price to drop below the IPO price on the first day? Or for how long? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303448404577411903118364314.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs

This certainly is a case of "them that's got, get more", then -- when you consider the allotment of shares is set before the IPO. They literally cannot lose. Meanwhile, people who fight to get in on the IPO are left with the option (no pun intended) of buying overvalued stock or passing.

If I'm not getting it, please correct. This crap makes my head hurt.

ddt

Without doubt the greediest most arrogant IPO in history. Offering shares at 100 times earnings is hardly a bargain.

Short it if you can.

is this a precursor to the next/new internet crash/

Not saying it's wholly deserved, but you can't straight-up compare it to most other stocks. FB has 15% of the world's population and more data on them than anyone else. That is unprecedented. It also is pretty profitable without having really focused on advertising. Facebook has put the network effect to practice like no one else, and accordingly, they are on a different scale.

I know this is nitpicking but 800 million active users is 12% not 15%.

China's top 4 social networking sites have over another 400 million users between them.

I would bet Google has more data on way more people (and uses it more nefariously) than Facebook - but it's a case of very incremental monetising from that user base.

I think Facebook's a $25Bn company, that's all. They have no iPads, iPhones, android operating systems or other tangible products. They have some lucrative FB-based games and advertising revenue streams and the rest is pie-in-the-sky cloudy vapourware stuff.

With its current business model the entire world would need to sign up to facebook and its earnings would still be less than a quarter that of Apple, its profit even less so.

Dud stock.

I would bet that Google and Facebook's data is all combined by our national security groups, along with telco, banking, utilities, etc.
Maybe even Macedition's treasure trove of personal information?!! LOL

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Tony Leggett
I know this is nitpicking but 800 million active users is 12% not 15%.

901 million — March 2012.

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Tony Leggett
China's top 4 social networking sites have over another 400 million users between them.

Yeah, I think for all these Western behemoths, China is the next frontier. Apple's doing well. I'm curious to see how Facebook compromises with the Chinese government here. I don't quite see where they'll make inroads.

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Tony Leggett
I would bet Google has more data on way more people (and uses it more nefariously) than Facebook - but it's a case of very incremental monetising from that user base.

No way. Google had to start a social network because Facebook has way more context on you that's relevant to advertising - the source of revenue for both companies. It's certainly an ongoing challenge for Facebook to develop more relevant and effective advertising - they're not making nearly as much per user - but they've been held back by their concern for user experience. It will be interesting to see how they respond to the pressure to whore out now that they're public, but I think Zuck's hoodie tour gives an indication there.

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Tony Leggett
I think Facebook's a $25Bn company, that's all. They have no iPads, iPhones, android operating systems or other tangible products. They have some lucrative FB-based games and advertising revenue streams and the rest is pie-in-the-sky cloudy vapourware stuff.

A free phone OS is a tangible product, but a web platform isn't? Facebook is enormously profitable now. I don't entirely disagree with you on valuation, but that's still a fuckload of money. The valuation is of course based on future promise, and FB has left no openings for others to beat them in social networking. It'll have to be the next thing that usurps them, just like they did with Google. They're shoring up on mobile now, and in the meantime, they can continue to ratchet up efforts on what they have now. FFS, mobile's over half their views, and they have no ads there! Doesn't take much imagination to put geolocation and social context together for relevant ads.

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With its current business model the entire world would need to sign up to facebook and its earnings would still be less than a quarter that of Apple, its profit even less so.

Dud stock.

If Apple's the benchmark then yeah, every company is a dud. But $1billion in revenue for an 8-year-old company with 3,500 employees puts it in the upper echelon.

Disclaimer: I am biased here. After reading the Facebook Effect, which I got for Xmas, and another thing, I've had a change of heart about FB. I'll have to share that story sometime.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/19/2012 08:10AM by johnny k.

FaceBook does have high profit margins, I'll grant you that. At 46% they're even higher than Apple. High profit margins at that level can't be maintained long term (even Apple only manages high 30s). Facebook is growing, but not as much as Apple - and its growth (unlike Apple) is now slowing.

It's now an 8-year-old company, not a cheeky startup, and it's already buying other startups rather than coming up with new ideas of its own. That's a sign of a more stagnant "mature" company looking to consolidate rather than grow.

They're going to have to quadruple their earnings next year just to make the stock not seem overvalued (and that means their EPS is still 25, nearly double that of Apple). At the current price its a long term speculative gamble rather than a blue chip which is what it should be.

Facebook is certainly a worthy company, but I still say it has an overhyped, overinflated stock price.

(And point conceded about Android OS vs Facebook platform)

Sean Penn dead right to be mad about Haiti relief aid/scam/deadbeats.

http://bit.ly/K41Jw1

Clinton/Bush foundation scammed everyone into giving BILLIONS, then they have hundreds of folks work on the charity, making obscene money for NOTHING, and not doling it out in any ethical amounts to the people that need it. Let them DIE, take their LAND, and build hotels or industry appears to have been the game plan all along.

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El Jeffe
Clinton/Bush foundation scammed everyone into giving BILLIONS, then they have hundreds of folks work on the charity, making obscene money for NOTHING, and not doling it out in any ethical amounts to the people that need it. Let them DIE, take their LAND, and build hotels or industry appears to have been the game plan all along.

Your link doesn't say anything about this. Cite?

Based on what I have heard by listening to hours and hours a day of podcasts... I am sure I am not at the quote/legal criteria of testimony. Likely never will be on anything as I am no claimed expert in anything...
In all honesty I don't have time to do a deep-dive on this...

Just a quick googling, and I'm likely to have heard from this source and others sympathetic to getting Haiti all that pledgERs tried to get to them:
http://bit.ly/KGF8bb
I w
I recall the Bush/Clinton fund making the most media splash. And the huge list of their staff rolls. I would not be surprised if other aid trickled not poured in via the slow valve that everyone's need to touch it results in time after time.



Not sure if you'll care for any of these...again, have not pored over these.

http://huff.to/KGGK4S
http://bit.ly/Jir2Jd


BBC interview Ban Ki Moon said $9.9 Billion pledged and working with Clinton for delivery.
He urges accountability of pledges, and immediate distribution.
4:18 mark BBC "how much of the ten billion dollars that's been promised has been delivered?"
Ban Ki Moon: "It's not much... it's not much... I can tell you... so, uhhhh. I would not want to quote any exact amount.... But I am working with Mr. Clinton on how we can expedite this money...."
Yes, older report.
http://bbc.in/KGIsmM

According to their site, they only collected $54 million. I have not seen their 501 c 3 annual form showing their balance sheet. (phone's ringing off the hook)

Bill, I don't know if this is true in that specific case (I haven't listened to the podcast, but the quote you pulled is not exactly specific), but U.S. payments to the UN (fees, dues, grants) have been blocked by Republicans in Congress, been held up by Republicans in Congress who want to tie it to "reform" demands, refused to send a message by the Bush administration, and withheld by Republican legislation.

The normal operations of our government isn't that the president promises and cuts a check; remember, Congress has the power of the purse.

ddt

It seems I'm not the only one who thinks FaceBook is overvalued...

Kind of a bummer that the recall of Wisconsin's governor failed. Out-of-state money spent on that election was seven times local money. How the hell is this even democracy? Imagine if foreign money spent on US presidential elections was seven times the money raised from Americans. What would that say about our process?

That was the hypothesis/news hook for a recent hackathon project: http://datafest-excellence.s3-website-us-east-1.amazonaws.com/ (and if anyone can help me figure out how to shrink that map size down, I'm all ears). Turned out that WI -- at least as of two weeks ago -- was not the highest out-of-state/in-state ratio, at least based on how the Sunlight Foundation data had it. Though there are tons of tricky ins and outs of what's considered campaign donations and what's "legal defense and other expenses".

ddt

That's very enlightening. What's with most of Montana's donations being from the outside?

I love Russ Feingold, but wouldn't put money into that recall race though he asked nicely. A) I'm not a party-line liberal and know little about the candidates, and B) it seems hypocritical to give out-of-state funds. I wish everyone would play by those rules.