AAPL.O

rino – January 23, 2008 06:18PM Reply Quote
In America, the only respectable form of socialism is socialism for the rich.

What else will hold value when the world's largest economy and driver tanks?
That's really several questions in one since I don't know very much about anything.

ghidorah – January 23, 2008 08:31PM Reply Quote
Raise taxes on cavemen. --jw

WOW honor points?

ghidorah – January 23, 2008 08:32PM Reply Quote
Raise taxes on cavemen. --jw

itunes gift cards?

tliet – January 23, 2008 08:55PM Reply Quote

Quote
rino
What else will hold value when the world's largest economy and driver tanks?

That's a question they've tried to answer in the documentary 'The day the dollar falls' by the Dutch public broadcasting organisation VPRO. It is available online, but the Dutch parts are not subtitled, making it a bit hard to follow for foreigners ;-). It does contain lots of interviews in English that are most interesting. The documentary was originally produced in 2005, but updated and rebroadcast a few weeks ago since so many parameters that were used have become reality since then.

The makers of the programme have asked a journalist and writer to develop a scenario where one event in the far east (the sale of a substantial amount of dollars) triggers a global slide of the US currency. The sole condition was that the scenario had to play out within 24 hours. A small recap in English is available here.

bahamut – January 24, 2008 04:06AM Reply Quote

Not a hell of a lot will hold value. The sharper decline in the European markets than on Wall Street exposes this. I think Europe is a far more civilized place to live in for many reasons (some politics, intelligence of inhabitants, etc.), but trying to get any business done there is like going back in time forty years. Yes, there are macroeconomic issues, but Europe has extreme problems with bureaucracy and in many countries your last name matters more than your talent. As for Asia, China is playing a dangerous game with its currency and I suspect that once the Olympics are over, we'll find out that much of the growth of the last few years was propaganda-driven. This could be a rough ride folks.

tliet – January 24, 2008 05:39AM Reply Quote

> but trying to get any business done there is like going back in time forty years.

That's intentional :-)

stan adams – January 24, 2008 05:41AM Reply Quote

Everything is a rough ride unless you've got layers of padding. As baha points out the "padding" in much of the EU has traditionally come from the State, generations of inherited power and a health mix of "noblesse oblige" . In the US there has been a lot less of that, which while it does make it easier to "get things done" also makes it probably too easy to whipsaw the little guys.

I just do not see that there will be any mass migration of cash out of the US -- our "consumer is king" model is, if anything, the wave of the future. There is a trend toward LESS social programs WORLDWIDE. While such a move will likely result in some increase in near term hardships for folks that rely on their government to help them out, longer term it is going to make more people part of the worldwide labor pool and ultimately consumers themselves.

It may take a bit of time for people to upgrade their tin shacks to cement, but once they do they're going to want stuff to entertainment themselves -- iPods for everyone!

I'm reminded of a eulogy that Jerry Lewis made for Lucile Ball: "She was a funny broad. She had magic. She could make the people in Bangladesh forget they were hungry and stuck in the mud..." I think that there are strong odds: Steve Jobs knows how to sell to technology -- he can make the people in China or India or where ever want an iPod...

tliet – January 24, 2008 06:09AM Reply Quote

This is where our views differ, the general opinion in Europe is that it should be the state that's on the lookout for those who can't defend themselves. It's been proven again and again that it's always in the corporations best interest to generate as much money possible, human rights be damned. Money is like water, always taking the path of the least resistance and seeking the lowest point to form huge lakes.

It's true that people need to be stimulated to get out there and make money for themselves, the 1970s are long behind us, even in Europe. But it's not about iPods for everyone, even in the US there's less and less people that can afford anything but just a roof above their heads.

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 01/24/2008 06:12AM by tliet.

rino – January 24, 2008 07:35AM Reply Quote
In America, the only respectable form of socialism is socialism for the rich.

http://www.salon.com/tech/htww/2008/01/24/bill_gates_and_wal_mart/index.html

Quote

Ten years ago (almost to the day) I thought I was being provocative when I called Bill Gates a "bleeding heart do-gooder liberal," based on a relatively small contribution the Microsoft founder had made to a Washington state handgun control initiative and some grants given by the nascent Gates Foundation to reproductive health and family planning groups. Reporters love contrarian takes on reality, and back then, calling Gates a liberal, even as his company was establishing itself as a global avatar of rapacious capitalism, crushing all who dared oppose it, seemed daring.

So I would not have predicted that a decade later, Gates, channeling Mohammad Yunus, would address the mighty potentates gathered at Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum and tell them "We have to find a way to make the aspects of capitalism that serve wealthier people serve poorer people as well."

The Wall Street Journal has the scoop: Bill Gates "has grown impatient with the shortcomings of capitalism."

Among the fixes he plans to call for: Companies should create businesses that focus on building products and services for the poor. "Such a system would have a twin mission: making profits and also improving lives for those who don't fully benefit from market forces," he plans to say....

In particular, he said, he's troubled that advances in technology, health care and education tend to help the rich and bypass the poor. "The rate of improvement for the third that is better off is pretty rapid," he said. "The part that's unsatisfactory is for the bottom third -- two billion of six billion."

stan adams – January 24, 2008 08:18AM Reply Quote

tliet:

I would challenge your assetion that there are "there's less and less people that can afford anything but just a roof above their heads." Thanks to overbuilding of condos & apartment in the low intrest rate period, declining housing prices and the looming recession people will have easier access to roofs. And becuse of Apple's relentless supply chain efficiency the Shuffle will continue to get cheaper and more spacious.

More comments in the Parlor.

Mighty Mouse – January 24, 2008 09:29AM Reply Quote

http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/080124/10400263.html?.v=1

That's as good an analysis as I've seen this week on Apple's stock position. A good look at the numbers and what Apple is doing right. He doesn't have great news for those looking for short term recovery (like me--grumble grumble), but does give reasons for why Apple's stock should bounce back over time, particularly as new announcements and this quarter's earnings come to light.

For today, I'd like to organize an expedition to take out a certain someone that reported iPhone shipments have been curbed. I think that's the reason for the off day today. Idiots.

Cloudscout – January 24, 2008 09:46AM Reply Quote
˙pɹɐoqʎǝʞ ʎɯ ɥʇıʍ ƃuoɹʍ ƃuıɥʇǝɯos sı ǝɹǝɥʇ ʞuıɥʇ ı ?ɹǝʇndɯoɔ ʎɯ ɥʇıʍ ǝɯ dlǝɥ ǝuoǝɯos uɐɔ

I believe the report could be accurate... sort of. It's possible that shipments of the current model have been trimmed as they ramp up production on a 3G version. They might even be using a different manufacturer for the new version so the current one might not even know the reason for the alleged slowdown. Or maybe they do know and are bitter about losing the contract so they intentionally leaked misinformation out of spite.

bahamut – January 25, 2008 02:50AM Reply Quote

or maybe nobody wants them.

Cloudscout – February 06, 2008 10:57AM Reply Quote
˙pɹɐoqʎǝʞ ʎɯ ɥʇıʍ ƃuoɹʍ ƃuıɥʇǝɯos sı ǝɹǝɥʇ ʞuıɥʇ ı ?ɹǝʇndɯoɔ ʎɯ ɥʇıʍ ǝɯ dlǝɥ ǝuoǝɯos uɐɔ

What the hell happened today?

stan adams – February 06, 2008 11:20AM Reply Quote

Baha was down on the MBA...

The man KNOWS people.

Cloudscout – February 06, 2008 11:21AM Reply Quote
˙pɹɐoqʎǝʞ ʎɯ ɥʇıʍ ƃuoɹʍ ƃuıɥʇǝɯos sı ǝɹǝɥʇ ʞuıɥʇ ı ?ɹǝʇndɯoɔ ʎɯ ɥʇıʍ ǝɯ dlǝɥ ǝuoǝɯos uɐɔ

Ouch. Closed at 122.00 today. That's down 5.7% today for a total loss of 40% over the last 6 weeks.

rino – February 06, 2008 11:57AM Reply Quote
In America, the only respectable form of socialism is socialism for the rich.

After hours +1.11

But yeah, it's not like AAPL == MSFT here and they need to have a P/E of 18.
I'm averaged in at 116 for my shares. Still in the green. This is after I took profits 3 times on the way up. I didn't get rich because I never wanted to invest it all in one stock but gee it's nice to think what if...

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 02/06/2008 11:58AM by rino.

El Jeffe – February 06, 2008 12:09PM Reply Quote
What a journey.

I think the presidential hopefuls are scaring enough on both sides to cause panic.

What a journey.

rino – February 06, 2008 12:11PM Reply Quote
In America, the only respectable form of socialism is socialism for the rich.

I dunno. Could just be a lot of money managers have taken profits this year, reducing their exposure (which grew quite large in 07) to AAPL. It's what I did.

bahamut – February 06, 2008 03:06PM Reply Quote

well... it could be that enough of wall street has made it up to soho to go no way...